How accurate is the model?
A chance is only useful if it's honest: runners given 30% should win about 30% of the time. Here's every race the site has rated, checked against the result.
Updated hourly · latest race 27 October 2026
Races rated
1,592
since 13 October 2026
Runners
11,042
Top pick won
46.7%
the model said 45.7% on average
Market favourite won
46.1%
the market said 40.0%
Chance given vs how often they won
Each dot is a band of chances. Across is the average chance given; up is how often those runners actually won. Dots on the line mean the chances were right on average. Faded dots have fewer than 30 runners, so they swing more.
- PuntPulse model
- Market (Sportsbet, margin removed)
- 95% range
Show as a table
| Chance band | Model said | Won | Runners | Market said | Won | Runners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4,018 | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3,189 |
| 5%–10% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 2,031 | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2,329 |
| 10%–15% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 1,306 | 12.3% | 11.1% | 1,560 |
| 15%–20% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 928 | 17.3% | 16.0% | 1,218 |
| 20%–25% | 22.4% | 23.4% | 633 | 22.4% | 23.1% | 788 |
| 25%–30% | 27.3% | 26.3% | 518 | 27.4% | 29.2% | 590 |
| 30%–40% | 34.4% | 34.0% | 711 | 34.2% | 38.8% | 719 |
| 40%–50% | 44.5% | 46.2% | 366 | 44.8% | 53.1% | 310 |
| 50%–60% | 54.7% | 56.7% | 223 | 54.3% | 61.3% | 191 |
| 60%–100% | 70.9% | 69.8% | 308 | 68.2% | 78.4% | 148 |
Against the market
On the 1,592 races where the market priced every runner, the model's chances were slightly closer to the results than the market's (Sportsbet's prices with the bookmaker's margin removed).
Measured by log loss, the standard score for probabilities (lower is closer): model 1.423, market 1.435.
The model starts from the market price and adjusts it, so the two are usually close. Being close to the results is not the same as making money: bookmakers' margins mean even accurate chances usually lose over time.
By price
Sportsbet's price shortly before the jump.
| Price | Runners | Model said | Market said | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1–$2 | 658 | 60.9% | 52.7% | 60.7% |
| $2–$4 | 2,102 | 29.9% | 27.7% | 30.2% |
| $4–$8 | 2,698 | 13.5% | 14.6% | 13.3% |
| $8–$15 | 2,169 | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| $15–$null | 3,415 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
How this is measured
- Every greyhounds race the site rated, using the chance it showed 1–4 minutes before the jump, the same number on the race card, never recalculated afterwards.
- Races before 23 October 2026 were replayed from the prices we recorded 2 minutes before each jump, with the same maths; from then on they were recorded live.
- Runners scratched after that point are left out. A dead heat counts as a share of a win.
- The market's chances are Sportsbet's prices with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
- See every race with the top pick beside the result on the results page.
These are statistical estimates, not tips, and not a promise of future results. Accuracy isn't profit. 18+. Gamble responsibly: Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858.