Starter strategy

Gallops top pick with a gap

The model's top horse only when it has a 25%+ chance, a 5%+ gap after commission and is $10 or shorter at Betfair.

Gallops
Model's top pick
$1.01–$10
chance ≥ 25%
gap ≥ 5%
Betfair
25% Kelly, ≤2% bank

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Upcoming

What fits your rules at Betfair's price right now. Bets are made 1–4 minutes before the jump, at the price then.

Updated 12:43 am

No upcoming races are priced yet. A race shows here once the market has priced every runner, usually within the hour before it jumps.

“Fits now” is at the current price and can change before the bet is made. “Close” is within a few points of every rule. Paper only, not a tip.

Record

Every race we've recorded since 13 Oct. Races before 23 Oct are replayed from the prices we recorded 2 minutes before each jump; later ones were paper-bet live. These are example rules, not tips, and not a proven advantage.

Only 39 settled bets. Results over fewer than 300 bets are mostly luck either way. Not a proven advantage.

Bank: $918.43; down $81.57 from $1,000.00
Return on stakes: −16.1%; on $507.59 staked
Bets: 39; 11 won (28% vs 37% expected)
Beat the closing price: 30%; 9 of 30 bets beat the same book's closing price
Worst dip: $175.27; peak to trough
Average price: $3.34

Bank

starting bank

Settled bets

Rockhampton R627 Oct−$15.76
#2 Lim's Teide Lost
$3.35 · close $2.98model 36% · gap +15%stake $15.76
Rockhampton R527 Oct−$13.62
#8 Red Feathers Lost
$4.10 · close $3.65model 30% · gap +16%stake $13.62
Swan Hill R527 Oct+$60.39
#6 Killiana Won
$4.70 · close $4.70model 30% · gap +32%stake $17.74
Swan Hill R327 Oct+$24.14
#3 Tremont Won
$2.52 · close $2.52model 49% · gap +18%stake $17.26
Wangaratta R626 Oct−$17.61
#3 The Mansman Lost
$3.15 · close $3.35model 40% · gap +18%stake $17.61
Wangaratta R126 Oct−$5.88
#14 Snowy Mountains Lost
$4.20 · close $4.20model 27% · gap +8%stake $5.88
Northam R1025 Oct−$13.35
#12 Dixie Doo Lost
$3.00 · close $2.82model 39% · gap +11%stake $13.35
Northam R825 Oct−$9.09
#8 Properata Lost
$2.76 · close $2.76model 41% · gap +6%stake $9.09
Northam R425 Oct−$5.01
#2 Jesa Lupa Lost
$4.10 · close $4.30model 28% · gap +6%stake $5.01
Northam R325 Oct−$10.53
#10 Non Reflective Lost
$4.40 · close $4.40model 28% · gap +14%stake $10.53
Port Lincoln R625 Oct−$18.87
#8 Utah Lost
$2.98 · close $2.82model 46% · gap +30%stake $18.87
Port Macquarie R325 Oct+$12.96
#2 BOBBIWAA Won
$3.35 · close $3.35model 34% · gap +6%stake $6.13
Port Macquarie R225 Oct−$5.14
#13 STORMY MARTINI Lost
$4.30 · close $4.80model 27% · gap +7%stake $5.14
Toowoomba R724 Oct+$13.68
#3 Sir Goldalot Won
$3.55 · close $3.20model 32% · gap +6%stake $5.83
Ascot R1024 Oct−$17.29
#14 TRULY LOYAL Lost
$3.20 · close $3.20model 38% · gap +15%stake $17.29
Collie R524 Oct−$8.02
#3 Teabiscuit Lost
$2.80 · close $2.80model 40% · gap +6%stake $8.02
Ascot R524 Oct−$14.65
#15 ROGUE RULER Lost
$3.30 · close $3.30model 36% · gap +13%stake $14.65
Collie R224 Oct−$16.83
#2 VILLAGE GIRL Lost
$4.40 · close $4.00model 29% · gap +22%stake $16.83
Ascot R424 Oct−$19.97
#2 Streamlined Lost
$3.20 · BSP $3.74model 44% · gap +32%stake $19.97
Eagle Farm R624 Oct+$17.22
#16 STRADA VARENNA Won
$2.32 · close $2.32model 48% · gap +7%stake $14.18
Ascot R124 Oct−$14.22
#5 MALASTAR Lost
$2.82 · close $2.38model 41% · gap +10%stake $14.22
Kembla Grange R224 Oct+$27.74
#9 Satiri Won
$3.65 · close $3.75model 33% · gap +11%stake $11.63
Flemington R224 Oct−$9.75
#5 Valaroso Lost
$3.75 · close $3.75model 31% · gap +10%stake $9.75
St Arnaud R124 Oct+$33.03
#6 Julep Won
$3.55 · close $3.40model 34% · gap +14%stake $14.08
Flemington R124 Oct−$14.05
#4 Ice Kool Lost
$2.88 · close $2.84model 40% · gap +10%stake $14.05
Launceston R323 Oct−$11.96
#6 Summit Lost
$2.70 · close $2.70model 42% · gap +8%stake $11.96
Launceston R123 Oct−$17.10
#1 Alpine Whiskey Lost
$3.80 · close $3.80model 33% · gap +18%stake $17.10
Mackay R623 Oct−$8.21
#7 Our Missile Lost
$3.65 · close $3.95model 31% · gap +8%stake $8.21
Gawler R223 Oct−$20.33
#10 Cathay Express Lost
$3.75 · close $3.75model 35% · gap +22%stake $20.33
Ballarat R123 Oct−$10.35
#11 With Benefits Lost
$3.60 · close $3.60model 32% · gap +10%stake $10.35
Kalgoorlie R218 Oct−$11.69
#2 Hello Veneta Lost
$2.94model 39% · gap +8%stake $11.69
Ascot R917 Oct+$14.06
#3 King Of Light Won
$2.58model 43% · gap +5%stake $9.67
Leinster R517 Oct+$34.54
#1 Climb On Top Won
$3.00model 40% · gap +14%stake $18.77
Morphettville R617 Oct−$13.82
#12 Harmonic Dancer Lost
$2.22model 50% · gap +6%stake $13.82
Rockhampton R317 Oct+$14.20
#4 Metalcraft Won
$1.78model 64% · gap +9%stake $19.79
Bendigo R317 Oct+$27.00
#12 Sanctuary Won
$3.45model 34% · gap +11%stake $11.98
Bendigo R217 Oct−$12.95
#2 Genomic Lost
$4.40model 28% · gap +17%stake $12.95
Penola R316 Oct−$7.35
#4 Thermodynamic Lost
$3.70model 31% · gap +7%stake $7.35
Caulfield R614 Oct−$17.13
#13 Yauson Lost
$2.18model 52% · gap +7%stake $17.13

Race	Runner	Price	Model	Stake	Result	P/L
Rockhampton R6 27 Oct	#2 Lim's Teide	$3.35 close $2.98	36% gap +15%	$15.76	Lost	−$15.76
Rockhampton R5 27 Oct	#8 Red Feathers	$4.10 close $3.65	30% gap +16%	$13.62	Lost	−$13.62
Swan Hill R5 27 Oct	#6 Killiana	$4.70 close $4.70	30% gap +32%	$17.74	Won	+$60.39
Swan Hill R3 27 Oct	#3 Tremont	$2.52 close $2.52	49% gap +18%	$17.26	Won	+$24.14
Wangaratta R6 26 Oct	#3 The Mansman	$3.15 close $3.35	40% gap +18%	$17.61	Lost	−$17.61
Wangaratta R1 26 Oct	#14 Snowy Mountains	$4.20 close $4.20	27% gap +8%	$5.88	Lost	−$5.88
Northam R10 25 Oct	#12 Dixie Doo	$3.00 close $2.82	39% gap +11%	$13.35	Lost	−$13.35
Northam R8 25 Oct	#8 Properata	$2.76 close $2.76	41% gap +6%	$9.09	Lost	−$9.09
Northam R4 25 Oct	#2 Jesa Lupa	$4.10 close $4.30	28% gap +6%	$5.01	Lost	−$5.01
Northam R3 25 Oct	#10 Non Reflective	$4.40 close $4.40	28% gap +14%	$10.53	Lost	−$10.53
Port Lincoln R6 25 Oct	#8 Utah	$2.98 close $2.82	46% gap +30%	$18.87	Lost	−$18.87
Port Macquarie R3 25 Oct	#2 BOBBIWAA	$3.35 close $3.35	34% gap +6%	$6.13	Won	+$12.96
Port Macquarie R2 25 Oct	#13 STORMY MARTINI	$4.30 close $4.80	27% gap +7%	$5.14	Lost	−$5.14
Toowoomba R7 24 Oct	#3 Sir Goldalot	$3.55 close $3.20	32% gap +6%	$5.83	Won	+$13.68
Ascot R10 24 Oct	#14 TRULY LOYAL	$3.20 close $3.20	38% gap +15%	$17.29	Lost	−$17.29
Collie R5 24 Oct	#3 Teabiscuit	$2.80 close $2.80	40% gap +6%	$8.02	Lost	−$8.02
Ascot R5 24 Oct	#15 ROGUE RULER	$3.30 close $3.30	36% gap +13%	$14.65	Lost	−$14.65
Collie R2 24 Oct	#2 VILLAGE GIRL	$4.40 close $4.00	29% gap +22%	$16.83	Lost	−$16.83
Ascot R4 24 Oct	#2 Streamlined	$3.20 BSP $3.74	44% gap +32%	$19.97	Lost	−$19.97
Eagle Farm R6 24 Oct	#16 STRADA VARENNA	$2.32 close $2.32	48% gap +7%	$14.18	Won	+$17.22
Ascot R1 24 Oct	#5 MALASTAR	$2.82 close $2.38	41% gap +10%	$14.22	Lost	−$14.22
Kembla Grange R2 24 Oct	#9 Satiri	$3.65 close $3.75	33% gap +11%	$11.63	Won	+$27.74
Flemington R2 24 Oct	#5 Valaroso	$3.75 close $3.75	31% gap +10%	$9.75	Lost	−$9.75
St Arnaud R1 24 Oct	#6 Julep	$3.55 close $3.40	34% gap +14%	$14.08	Won	+$33.03
Flemington R1 24 Oct	#4 Ice Kool	$2.88 close $2.84	40% gap +10%	$14.05	Lost	−$14.05
Launceston R3 23 Oct	#6 Summit	$2.70 close $2.70	42% gap +8%	$11.96	Lost	−$11.96
Launceston R1 23 Oct	#1 Alpine Whiskey	$3.80 close $3.80	33% gap +18%	$17.10	Lost	−$17.10
Mackay R6 23 Oct	#7 Our Missile	$3.65 close $3.95	31% gap +8%	$8.21	Lost	−$8.21
Gawler R2 23 Oct	#10 Cathay Express	$3.75 close $3.75	35% gap +22%	$20.33	Lost	−$20.33
Ballarat R1 23 Oct	#11 With Benefits	$3.60 close $3.60	32% gap +10%	$10.35	Lost	−$10.35
Kalgoorlie R2 18 Oct	#2 Hello Veneta	$2.94	39% gap +8%	$11.69	Lost	−$11.69
Ascot R9 17 Oct	#3 King Of Light	$2.58	43% gap +5%	$9.67	Won	+$14.06
Leinster R5 17 Oct	#1 Climb On Top	$3.00	40% gap +14%	$18.77	Won	+$34.54
Morphettville R6 17 Oct	#12 Harmonic Dancer	$2.22	50% gap +6%	$13.82	Lost	−$13.82
Rockhampton R3 17 Oct	#4 Metalcraft	$1.78	64% gap +9%	$19.79	Won	+$14.20
Bendigo R3 17 Oct	#12 Sanctuary	$3.45	34% gap +11%	$11.98	Won	+$27.00
Bendigo R2 17 Oct	#2 Genomic	$4.40	28% gap +17%	$12.95	Lost	−$12.95
Penola R3 16 Oct	#4 Thermodynamic	$3.70	31% gap +7%	$7.35	Lost	−$7.35
Caulfield R6 14 Oct	#13 Yauson	$2.18	52% gap +7%	$17.13	Lost	−$17.13

Paper results: no money is placed. Bets are recorded at real prices 1–4 minutes before the jump and settled on the result; Betfair bets pay commission on winnings. A “gap” is the model's estimate against the price, not a proven advantage, and paper results don't predict future results. 18+. Gamble responsibly: Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858.